EIGHT BELLES

Eight Belles
and the ship is all right
the air is cold
and damp tonight

she has raced and chased
and run for her life
now she lay dead
my heart is opened
with a rusty, dull knife

ONE MORE WEEK OF PREPS

Here's the list until next week's races. Big Brown's FL. Derby time was 3-4 lengths faster than Barbaro's winding down and Barbaro was pressed to the wire. The 12th of april is the last race for any chance to make the Derby, but not crazy about the turn around time of the Bluegrass.

1) Denis of Cork
2) Big Brown
3) Colonel John
4) Pyro
5) Cool Coal Man
6) Tomcito
7) Smooth Air
8) Blackberry Road
9) War Pass
10) Yankee Bravo
11) Elysium Fields
12) Tale of Ekati
13) Court Vision
14) El Gato Malo
15) Visionaire

Oaks

1) Eight Belles
2) Proud Spell
3) Country Star
4) Pure Clan
5) B Sharp Sonata

CROWN OF THORNS OUT-THE LAST 20+ LISTING

Crown of Thorns is out with a small injury. Might still race later this year.....

Here's the last list until the condensing begins with the Prep races over the next few weeks.

1. Tale of Ekati
2. Pyro
3. War Pass
4. Denis of Cork
5. Giant Moon
6. Blackberry Road
7. Court Vision
8. Colonel John
9. Kodiak Kowboy
10. El Gato Malo
11. Wicked Style
12. Alaazo
13. Tomcito
14. Georgie Boy
15. Into Mischief
16. Anak Nakal
17. Monba
18. Smooth Air
19. Elysium Fields
20. Majestic Warrior
21. Cool Coal Man
22. Massive Drama

Where was Z Humor?

Clearly, Country Star will not run in the Derby as she is fighting illness to even make it to the Oaks. That opens up a spot in the top 20 for Fierce Wind, Tomcito, or Alaazo. This week the list will be re-ranked and should narrow down considerable after 3/1 and 3/8 prep races.

Z Humor ran so poorly today he might have to be left off the list. Any Given Saturday won the Sam Davis last year and still got no better than 8th in the derby. Z Fortune finished OTB today. The race was not that impressive overall, but definitely left us questioning the ability of Z Humor.

POOL 2 BETS

Definitely cover Blackberry Road, Smooth Air, Crown of Thorns , and War Pass at fair odds in the next future. War Pass may not get the distance so nothing under 8-1(only becuase he is looking at something that none of us can see like Dikinson's horses or Secretariat, Man o War did it too) . The others are fair at anything at 12-1 or higher, I believe. Remember a well wheeled trifecta can fix small coverage in future win pool. If a bomb lands it this year, small wagers can pay big.

PYRO, EARLY WAGER POOLS

Well, I felt good getting Pyro at 12-1 in the start and would have loved 10-1 at close of pool 1. However, his performance in the Risen Star showed the difference of a two year old horse and a three year old horse. I'm not saying he would've beaten War Pass, but what a professional move at the end to win. No whip, just simple urging and pure determination. A little too much....
He is now down to 5-1. Still, a fair price, but might be better to wait 'til closer to closing odds day to make the bet next year.

Put down on paper a $100 trifecta wheel with chances of multi paying tix today. Good chance of covering 60% of the field. We'll see......

OFFICIAL TRIPLE CROWN NOMS/EXPERIMENTAL HANDICAP

Each year horse owners pay the fee to enter their horse into the triple crown. It is $600 per horse right now and jumps up to $6000 if entered at a later date. This year 448 horses were entered so far (2 fillies).
Just last week, the Experimental Free Handicap was also published. Street Sense was the high weight last year and went on to win the derby. This year, War Pass is following those same lines after winning the Breeder's Cup juvenile like Street Sense. Below are the eighteen horses that look the most promising so far along with their experimental weight. Country Star is one of the two fillies nominated and included in the eighteen below. Again, there will be twenty horse in the Derby, but the idea is to get it down to around 12 for Derby day and plan the bets accordingly.
For example a trifecta wheel for Derby Day: A,B/A,B/B,C,D; A,B/A,B,D/B,C,D; A,B/A,B,E/C,D,E is $21 and if you set up this same series of three wheels with alternating your A,B choices it will cost $42 for 6 wheels and coverage can be quite substantial. The trick is to be right with your A,B pick as the A,B/A,B/C ticket will pay three times. Or you can hope to be right with your A,B picks and get a deadheat with your C-E picks.

1) Tale of Ekati 118
2) Pyro 120
3) Majestic Warrior 118
4) Into Mischief 120
5) War Pass 127
6) Kodiak Kowboy 118
7) Court Vision 119
8) Dennis of Cork N/A
9) Massive Drama 115
10) Colonel John 116
11) Blackberry Road 111
12) Z Humor 114
13) Country Star 121
14) Racecar Rhapsody 111
15) El Gato Malo 109
16) Slew's Tiznow 112
17) Turf War 112
18) Wicked Style 119

Denis of Cork was not listed on the experimental handicap. Also, left off the list, Giant Moon, a longshot to get in if his campaign never leaves New York. Huge pedigree possibly wasted.

After thinking about it all day after posting, I have to include Crown of Thorns for now. His time was slow for Santa Anita sat., but visually the race he ran was great and his times on a dirt track would have fit. DI of 3.0 and a CD of 1.0. Might be better suited for the Preakness..???? Saturday at the fairgrounds should help to downsize the "field" a bit. We'll see....:)