BC Horses next Out-Play Against

With the exception of the Leopard and Pecious Kitten, no B.C. horses have come to fire next time out and the prices were definetly better to play against. Midnight Lute ran well but lost and Nobiz Like Showbiz ran like a tired horse. Is it smart to throw these horses out in Pick 3s and 4s to get value? Who do you take to beat them? A horse proven at the distance and even better at the track the race is run or "like track" (i.e.Daytona on west coast firm turf). Up front speed had played out the first two weeks of Hol park meet-why would Nobiz Like Showbiz(one move though it's big) go off at such a low price. Because we still love a name, a horse that has proven itself more than once, to the tune of over $150K being bet to win on Nobiz. Don't get me wrong, I had him covered in the Pick 4 sequence. A Pick 4 that stayed alive but grew slimmer as Daytona held on(Medici code qualifying as a LS that I didn't cover). The next week or two will have a better understanding of the race after the B.C. race, but I will look to play against at a short price in most cases. This year's slop also figures into the equation, and next year on polytrack will throw this blog to the wolves.
16 Million Green Monkey? What can he run on? Maybe he'll like Del Mar.
The Tin Man took a walk in the stable this week. Best wishes to his recovery.
It was nice to seee Todd Pletcher @ Hol. Hope we see him at Santa Anita with a certain A.P. Indy mare....