COUNTRY STAR

Wow, what a great filly!!! Sets a track record in the Hollywood Starlet as a two year old. She is big like Rags to Riches was though for a two year old. She is out of Empire Maker who is out of Unbridled. Empire Maker won the Belmont and was 2nd in the derby. Unbridled, of course, won the derby. Bottomside is the mare Rings a Chime who was second in the Kentucky Oaks. I'd like to see this filly on a conventional dirt track, but she is easily the front runner for the Oaks on May 2nd. Bobby Flay's filly, Grace and Power, looked excellent in the paddock and ran a strong second.

GOOD NEWS-BAD NEWS

Lava Man is not retired. The old guy is still just out to pasture. Hopefully, it refreshes him or one has to hope the connections will truly retire him. I highly recommend the DVD "The Story of Lava Man".
Quickly, two more for the derby watch...Massive Drama and Into Mischief. Massive Drama is out of sire Kafwain who never won anything more than 9 furlongs. Out of an OK(as in the state) mare Peyvon. Yeah, we're reaching a bit to include him, but we should know more in 8 days with the running of the futurity at Hollywood. Into Mischief is out of multi gradaed stakes winner Harlan's Holiday and unraced mare Leslies Lady whom throws a ton of classic points from her pedigree onto him. I think that brings us to around 16 now so we'll watch Shore Do and Old Man Buck before adding them and see who else pops up in the next few weeks.
Country Star looks good for the Starlet tomorrow, but Spritely, Grace Anatomy, and Foxy Danseur should figure into the mix. The Oaks could be a very interesting race with the group of two year old fillies we've seen so far.

TWO RUMORS

What is this? The Us weekly of horse racing? Celebrity sitings, gossip, etc. Next, I'll include horoscopes for horses. Wow, the numerologist could have a field day. OK, here we go. There is a rumor on several web sites that Lava Man has been retired. If he has, I can not wait for the day that all three tracks in soCal honor him and plan on being there to see him one last time. He'll forever be on my phone staring me down @ Santa Anita before winning the Sunshines Millions as one of the ones that got me "hooked".
Here is maybe the funnier of the two...Supposedly, "Smokin' Joe Talamo is dating Ron Ellis' daughter and will see some live mounts out of it. The last time I checked, he wasn't having too much trouble getting live mounts, but I love that this has been "leaked" on other horse racing websites. The fact that he is 18 and a millionaire and I keep repeating the phrase "live mounts" is ridiculous. Be good and bet heavy(but not on Mr.Wolverine, he is my single on thurs.)

10/24-25/2008

THREE MORE RACES ADDED TO BREEDER'S CUP FRIDAY!!!!!!!! Though they are tricky ones, what a great two day in a row Pick 6 will be offered. This year we will see the Dirt Marathon @ one and one half miles, Turf Sprint @ 6.5F and the Juvenile Fillies Turf @ a mile. In addition, friday will include Filly & Mare Sprint, Dirt Mile, and Juvenile Turf. We won't have to watch the skies too much that week to see how the track will play if Santa Anita can get the drainage fixed the next week. The only question, will be horses with little or no experience on synthetic and the different synthetic surfaces that prep races might come from. Let's get through the Triple Crown first, but the Breeder's Cup just gets better and better.

TWO TWO YEAR OLD RACES IN THE BOOKS

We'll add two horses with hesitation to the list because they ran well, fit in pedigree, and we have room on the list. We aren't dropping off any horses yet because the delta Downs race was run at such fast fractions and in such an odd style to result in the dead heat no one can fault the horses involved. Z Humor looked to be in the perfect spot and was, but where and how Turf War got up is a mystery. He is so off camera so much of the race, one can only guess how he looked earlier on, but the finish and ground he made up was oddly familiar to the ride Street Sense got last year under Borel in the derby. So with that, we add him. He is out of an unraced mare named Grass Skirt and lightly raced Dixie Union on top. He comes with a CD of .75 and is 3/5 win with a place. I'm not jumping in his corner, but would include him in the c-d ranks of a superfecta for that closing ability alone. Turf War was bred in Ky. , but trains in Canada as of late. The winner of the Derby has only come from Canada twice and they were both bred in Canada. Northern Dnacer in '64 and Sunny's Halo in '83.
The other horse we'll add is Giant Moon. He also has a CD of .75 and is out of Giants Causeway. He is New York bred and I'm not sure I'm ready to go big thinking he is the next Funny Cide, but might be another to include in c-d ranks of trifectas and superfectas. He looks like he would've finished fourth in the Delta Downs race friday and we'll choose not to include Golden Yank who ran a game third(2nd) on friday. Both of these additions seem to be more boxcar covers in supers than true contenders, but it's early and they have proved they can win at a mile and a 16th against their peers.

CD of DERBY PICKS, SO FAR

To give us an idea of CD index of the last two years we will use two horse that last won the Derby and one that should have... Street Sense(.68), Barbaro(.70), and Curlin(1.05). After friday's race at Delta Downs we should have at least one or two probable starters and then after the 22nd at Hollywoood a couple of more probable starters. By the way, horses with Storm Cat 1st and 2nd back are running well over synthetic in it's early stages. Remembering that the Derby will be run on conventional dirt Smart Strike, Street Cry, Dynaformer, A.P. Indy, Pulpit and Tale of the Cat(whom may be more of a Preakness producer)might be the best sires to look to. With all the non-sense pedigree-capping, here's the list so far:

Denis of Cork (.36)
Kodiak Kowboy (.58)
Colonel John (.64)
Slew's Tiznow (.67)
Cave's Valley (.69)
Tale of Ekati (.71)
Racecar Rhapsody (.73)
Z Humor (.75)
Sequoyah (.78)
Blackberry Road (.83)
Majestic Warrior (.86)
Bet a Tron (.96)
Court Vision (.96)
Pyro (1.06)



If not for a fast trip we hope for all, at least a safe one.

LAST ONE, I PROMISE

Z HUMOR-Sire Distorted Humor has produced Funny Cide, Hystericalady, and Any Given Saturday as of late. Underneath he gets A.P. Indy unraced mare Offtheoldblock. This is the colt they "mention" in her pedigree inquiry.

SERIOUSLY, JUST ONE MORE...

until the third week-end of Dec. after the futurity @ Hollywood. We have to add Cane's Valley to the Derby watch. Buckpasser on top, Secretariat top and bottom, out of the solid A.P. Indy stallion Stephen Got Even. Five months to go and I'm already feeling my self absorption into the Derby and what can follow afterwards. I'm not sure how many this makes the list, but promise to keep it under twenty and then start narrowing down the first week of March right up to May 3rd.
They are trying to fix the drainage problem at Santa Anita before their meet starts in three weeks. Horses will be training on the "sandy" inner training track or shipped over to Hollywood. Either way, works are a bit compromised for the first week or two of the meet with this taking place. Would require a good performance last out on Santa Anita to qualify a horse. The consitency on top will not be changing. Underneath will now have a "larger sand" to allow drainage without blocking itself into the concrete and creating a seal along with the waxes and other synthetic materials. Better to fix all this now than next year when it will all be more in the public eye than ever.

THREE MORE

Bet a Tron who has Buckpasser 4 back underneath. Slew's Tiznow whom qualifies on being out of Tiznow alone. Lastly, Racecar Rhapsody out of A.P. Indy mare Reflect the Music with some Storm Cat influence on top. The list can not be more than twenty. At that point I will take out lesser qualifying candidates. Just a sidenote, I made it on to the DRF website today under Steven Crist's blog responses. He threw out some questions re: Cal racing and synthetic and I threw out my opinion.

THREE TO ADD FOR EARLY DERBY WATCH

Kodiak Kowboy is 6/7 in the money with lifetime earnigs over $540K He is out of Posse who is out of Silver Deputy whom gave us Ky. Derby winner Silver Charm. Blackberry Road has finished 2nd in two Grade III races and is out of Gone West. Denis of Cork has only raced one, but we have seen the lightly raced theory work lately. He is a Florida Bred out of multi stkes winner and 16-22 ITM horse Harlans Holiday.

GREG'S GOLD CONTINUES PLAY AGAINST THEORY

Off as the even money favorite in the Underwood Stakes, Greg's Gold ran a game third. Breeder's Cup races and the travelling might just take a lot out of the horse and they seem to remain a play against at short odds. Lots of value at Hollywood today after the chalkfest saturday. Of course, Nakatani had an objection in the feature race. He claims Talamo hit his horse with his whip around the 16th pole. What a load....(not on the replays I watched).He should spend more time at the golf course teaching Espinoza what the two need to do when they retire. Which can't come soon enough for Victor. Dreadful rides of late. The colony is switching. P.Val is trying to come back, Nakatani and Espinoza can't find their old glory, Solis is solid but looks like the cold is getting to his back. Gomez, Bejarano, both Baze boys, Talamo, Mike Smith, Martin Garcia are much more trustworthy on value horses than the "oldies but goodies" with favorites.

DIXIE CHATTER OUT

Dixie Chatter suffered an ankle injury this week and will have to be given a couple of months off. Richard Mandella was pretty sure this ruled out any chance for the Derby on May 3rd.
Romance is Diane($7.00) ran a great race on saturday(track record) fighting off Tough Tiz Sis. Once again, showing that horses running last out Breeder's Cup races might be a "play against" at too short of a price. Another horse to watch will be the Pletcher trained Talk of a Cat. He ran third in his debut and broke his maiden saturday in emphatic fashion. Only after unseating Garrett Gomez as he came onto the track. Luckily, these two horses were my singles in the Pick 4. With the late scratch of the 1 in the 7th race I automatically got the 8 splitting my two tickets into 4 tickets alive going into the last race with the 1,2,7, covered in all of them. Unfortunately, my horses ran 2nd, 4th, and 6th to M Biarritz(16.40) and my win/place saver bet on him wasn't quite as exciting as cashing four winning pick four tickets. The wife and I had several beers bought for us at Whittingham's though and there were some great people with some great stories. If you go to hollywood Park, you have to stop at Whittingham.s and see the bartender, Naomi. A great character of the track.

2008 TRIPLE CROWN

Does anyone think we'll get the same quality Triple Crown as 2007? Indian Blessing has probably seen the length to her distance. The next few weeks should provide us with the early contenders for the first sat. in May. Horseracingtalk.com has refused to begin to discuss it, but if Street Sense brought up these thoughts last year...here we go. Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Majestic Warrior, Court Vision, and Dixie Chatter all fit on Dosage and the top five averages a 3.0 less dosage so the super might be easier than expected. Court Vision might be a throw out, but the other four have to be considered so far. Over the next month, more will unveil fromthe east coast and who knows who will look good in the spring races? I still think two white socks could be coming in, in any or all of the triple crown races with the yet unraced Seqouyah(A.P.Indy/Chilukki). Give me 5/1 on either Tale of Ekati or Seqouyah and I'm locked in for the Derby at least.

BC Horses next Out-Play Against

With the exception of the Leopard and Pecious Kitten, no B.C. horses have come to fire next time out and the prices were definetly better to play against. Midnight Lute ran well but lost and Nobiz Like Showbiz ran like a tired horse. Is it smart to throw these horses out in Pick 3s and 4s to get value? Who do you take to beat them? A horse proven at the distance and even better at the track the race is run or "like track" (i.e.Daytona on west coast firm turf). Up front speed had played out the first two weeks of Hol park meet-why would Nobiz Like Showbiz(one move though it's big) go off at such a low price. Because we still love a name, a horse that has proven itself more than once, to the tune of over $150K being bet to win on Nobiz. Don't get me wrong, I had him covered in the Pick 4 sequence. A Pick 4 that stayed alive but grew slimmer as Daytona held on(Medici code qualifying as a LS that I didn't cover). The next week or two will have a better understanding of the race after the B.C. race, but I will look to play against at a short price in most cases. This year's slop also figures into the equation, and next year on polytrack will throw this blog to the wolves.
16 Million Green Monkey? What can he run on? Maybe he'll like Del Mar.
The Tin Man took a walk in the stable this week. Best wishes to his recovery.
It was nice to seee Todd Pletcher @ Hol. Hope we see him at Santa Anita with a certain A.P. Indy mare....

COLONEL JOHN

He won at two turns in 1:42 and 4. Should be running in the Futurity on 12/22 and get a look at some much better horses to truly size him up. The Green Monkey tries the grass in the 4th at Hollywood Park wed. ???????

CELEBRITY SITING VS. EASY PICK 6, etc.

Now I know I'm hooked like a fish. With Friday night's carryover and the automatic single in the 8th with Storm Military(5) it was an easy pick 6 sequence if you could forgive M. Baze and see a couple of "oldies but goodies" returning to form; most notably Owen Roe O'Neill. P.Val is back and should make a dent in things . Two superfecta (4th and 2nd)finishes for him and an objection already.
Tomorrow, if Colonel John wins does that make him an interesting Derby contender and can Nakatani produce a winner in the big race anymore?
I'm getting ahead of myself though and what the title has to do with all this. My wife and I are in a boutique/cafe on sat. around 2 P.M off La Brea in L.A. and Gavin Rossdale walks in only to precede his lovely wife Gwyn Stefani(whom I've had a crush on(10 years?) since the No Doubt days) pushing their child, Kingston in a stroller. They are ready for some lunch, but have obviously phoned ahead to say we are coming...get us a spot. When Gavin comes in halfway through the store, the manager is there to greet them and ask, "Well, how did you do?" My first thought is , Gavin Rossdale played the early races at Hollywood and I make eye contact waiting for his answer. Forgive me I'm reading "May the Horse Be With You" and fantasize about saratoga in the summer and everyone "in town" being into the races. Only to realize, they probably were looking for new baby bedding, Christmas decor, a new couch,etc., who knows, but I assure you the last thing on their mind was the results of Hollywood Park as I tried to figure out how low the easy pick four single Foxy Danseur would be bet down in the 3rd and if any exacta bet would be worth it. I'd given almost anything in the world at that moment for either of them to pull out a voucher and tell the Manager... "we're alive with the chalk in the third." Where are the glory days of actresses being married to owners/musicians and everyone drinking a dirty martini in the turf club? The day is inevitably around the corner when we count down the last days of Hollywood Park, and everyone I miss is one that will hurt two-fold when it is gone. Tonight as my wife and I made dinner, "Rags to Riches"(yes, I downloaded it after the Oaks5/4/07) came over the Ipod stereo and I told her in twenty years we'll look at each other as this song plays and say, "Remember when there was that track in Inglewood and we watched the Belmont there? That filly Rags to Riches won it and neither of us were smart enough to put her on top of our trifecta(that was the bet we bet then?low investment big payoff?if we ever were right) I'll remember that big white face stumbling at the start and thinking what a fool I was to include her in the bottom rungs,it's a long race so I thought it a few times, and then sit there staring at the infield t.v. after the finish and the silence of Hollywood Park wanting to cry as the song played and we sat there still trying to believe what we had just seen and feeling relief for Todd Pletcher after the derby and only regret that we didn't believe in her. The money and win a side-note. Now all the more poignant with Curlin's success. Hopefully, I'll be looking at a two year old colt out of some Rags to Riches combination that includes Tale of Ekati with Triple Crown possiblities as I regress. :)

The next few weeks start shaping up for the first saturday(i.e.Hollywood Futurity 12/22) in May and we have the chance to be right or wrong again. In So. Cal, we can plant the mint now(it's 59 for a low), save room on our BevMo card for a discount on Brandy, and almost know the winner will not come from our synthetic tracks, but....Breeder's Cup 2008 -somebody has to win every race on the synthetic surface(except turf and we never get rain so we'll run on firm turf(sorry euros) )and the locals at Santa Anita will finally have an edge on the "big race". By the way, I do not say this thinking I'm a local or have the edge, but I hope someone I stand behind at the betting window in the next 11 months is that person.